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Week Ahead Outlook

Monday 06/12/21: Pressure through the week ahead will be largely dominated by low pressure, especially so through the fist half of the week with Storm Barra due on Tuesday. This will be a deep low and will bring wet and windy weather across the UK with hill snow possible. A general westerly flow will reside for much of the week and this will mean further showers or weather fronts passing west to east but with colder air more likely than milder, this will bring the risk of wintry weather across elevation in the north but some sleet/wet snow isn’t ruled out lower down at times. Air temperatures at 5,000ft clearly linger below 0c for a period this week and will …

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UK Summer Forecast 2020 – Final forecast

Within our UK summer forecast for 2020 we look at a range of variables, teleconnections, historical data and seasonal models to gain a wider range of knowledge which helps build the UK summer forecast together. We will be going through these step by step with various updates in the coming weeks. Summer 2020 final forecast: Welcome to the final summer forecast for 2020. Within this forecast will be using seasonal model data along with the usual teleconnections and also our own forecast charts which we compile using historical data. Before we start though please remember that to forecast so far ahead specifically is impossible, we are only dealing with projected patterns and there are and will be many unknowns going …

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Locked In Polar Vortex To Blame For UK Flooding?

This winter has for the most part been dominated by an active zonal flow which in essence means the weather has come from the west and as most of you will know when this occurs, wet and windy weather will be the main feature in such a flow.   This flow has unfortunately led to floods across the UK with these certainly more apparent recently especially across parts of Wales and the Midlands. Our own re-analysis highlights the fact that many western areas have indeed been far wetter than is the norm.   So the question for many will be why? Why has the pattern been so dominant? For the answer we have to look way up in the stratosphere. …

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