We’ve some very active weather to contend with during the next 24 hours or so as the jetstream ramps up and a deepening area of low pressure rattles in from the Atlantic. The strength of the winds will be the initial concern, especially across western areas at first and then as the low pulls away to the ESE tomorrow we see the risk of some severe gales across north sea coasts of northeast England, Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and East Anglia. Gusts along coastal areas may reach in excess of 60mph for a time with 50mph+ inland.
Gusts will range from 50-60mph widely across western areas during the early hours of Sunday morning, potentially higher locally and in exposed locations. Below are some wind gust charts from our pro high resolution model.
There will be plenty of showers and longer spells of rain associated with this system and as the low centre starts to pull away into the north sea we draw in much colder air from the north and that is when things start getting interesting.. First lets take a quick look at a couple of rainfall charts…
The colder air will move into Scotland and head south throughout Sunday. Initially the snow risk will be confined to higher ground then lower ground in Scotland but as the day progresses we’ll see the risk of wintry showers further south as the cold air floods south.
There is a low risk of some sleet and snow across parts of the West Midlands, Cheshire, Derbyshire and northern Pennines in general during the early hours of Sunday morning in which I have marked on the below chart. You can also see showers turning increasingly to snow across Scotland, parts of N Ireland, inland Ireland with some wintry showers across inland parts of Wales.
Sunday on a whole will be much colder with wintry showers affecting northern, western and at times eastern coasts. Many inland areas will turn dry through the day with plenty of sunshine. As we enter Monday we see our attention turn to the northwest as we see the direction of flow switch bringing even colder air into the United Kingdom.
We will see a weakening frontal system move in from the west during Monday late morning/early afternoon. This will mainly be of rain across western coasts, however as it moves inland there is a risk of sleet and snow across northern England, Scotland, higher ground of Wales and central areas with elevation.
In behind this system much colder air digs in and by Monday night we’ll see the risk of snow showers to lower ground in the west and northwest. Throughout Tuesday and Wednesday the colder weather really takes hold with low pressure and cold air combining leading to the risk of extensive snow showers, perhaps causing issues to some areas.
Whilst many parts of the United Kingdom will see a risk of a snow shower or two it will be western areas exposed to the bitterly cold WNW flow that see the main bulk of shower activity. Scotland, Northern Ireland, Ireland, NW England (Lancashire), Cheshire, West Midlands, Wales and SW England are the areas to be if you want to see wintry showers/snow showers. It won’t just be higher ground at risk of seeing accumulations, lower ground in the forementioned areas are at risk of seeing accumulations, especially during hours of darkness or when showers merge into longer spells of snow. Below are a few charts showing the snow risk.
The first image shows the much colder air digging in (purples) at 850hpa on Monday night.
Looking ahead and there is some uncertainty with regards to whether or not we see cold conditions continue into the start of Feb. At the moment colder conditions are more likely than milder weather as we head into Feb, we may see a very cold spell of weather developing. The main emphasis is on cold conditions with low pressure in charge which would lead to a higher risk of snow, potentially disruptive at times but I will keep a close eye on this and will of course let you know.
The attached images show a potential snow event for Thursday of next week, subject to change of course and that is exactly what it keeps doing, changing, as each model run has the low tracking further south which would lead to a risk of snow across a larger area. If the jet does head south them lows will track further south and with colder air over the UK or to the north of the UK it is looking positive. So it certainly something to keep an eye on.