Autumn 2026 – Increased Risk of Wet and Windy Weather
Meteorological autumn is now underway, and attention is turning to what Autumn 2026 could bring across the UK during September, October and November.
At this early stage, UKWF considers there to be an increased probability of wetter and more unsettled conditions than average during Autumn 2026, although this certainly does not mean the entire season will be wet or stormy.
There will inevitably be quieter periods, with high pressure potentially bringing spells of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather. However, the overall pattern currently suggests that the Atlantic could become increasingly influential as autumn progresses.
How likely is a wet Autumn 2026?
Our current early assessment is:
Wetter than average: 60–65% probability
Near-average rainfall: 20–25% probability
Drier than average: 15–20% probability
These percentages represent an early UKWF long-range assessment and will be adjusted as new information becomes available.
The increased probability of wetter conditions also brings an increased risk of periods of strong winds.
An active North Atlantic jet stream would allow areas of low pressure to approach the UK more frequently, potentially bringing spells of heavy rainfall and strong winds.
Northern and western areas would normally experience the greatest exposure to Atlantic systems, including Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and northwest England. However, deeper areas of low pressure taking a more southerly track could bring disruptive weather much more widely.
Could Autumn 2026 be stormy?
There is an above-average risk of notable wet and windy spells during Autumn 2026, particularly as we progress deeper into the season.
This does not necessarily mean an unusually high number of named storms will occur. The precise tracks and intensity of individual Atlantic depressions cannot be predicted months in advance.
However, if the Atlantic remains active, there will be opportunities for deeper areas of low pressure to affect the UK.
The strength and position of the jet stream will be particularly important.
September 2026
September is expected to remain changeable, with the transition from summer into autumn becoming increasingly apparent.
There should still be opportunities for warm and settled weather, particularly when high pressure develops close to the UK.
However, periods of Atlantic low pressure could increasingly interrupt these quieter conditions, bringing spells of rain, showers and stronger winds.
Temperatures can still rise well above average during September, so an unsettled overall pattern does not rule out further warm spells.
October 2026
October currently carries an increased risk of wet and windy weather.
As autumn progresses, the temperature contrast across the North Atlantic typically increases. This can contribute towards a strengthening jet stream and more developed Atlantic depressions.
If the Atlantic becomes increasingly active, October could feature several periods of low pressure bringing heavy rain and strong winds, separated by quieter and drier intervals.
There could also be an increasing opportunity for the first significant stormy periods of the 2026/27 season.
November 2026
November could potentially become one of the more unsettled periods of Autumn 2026.
An active Atlantic pattern would increase the possibility of repeated areas of low pressure crossing or passing close to the UK, bringing periods of heavy rainfall and strong winds.
Temperatures will also continue to fall as we approach winter, increasing the possibility of the first widespread frosts.
If colder air becomes established across northern Europe, occasional northerly outbreaks could also introduce an early risk of wintry showers or snow over northern hills.
However, confidence in these details remains low at this range.
What UKWF will be monitoring
Over the coming weeks, UKWF will continue monitoring the long-range atmospheric and oceanic signals that could influence the remainder of Autumn 2026.
Particular attention will be paid to the strength and position of the North Atlantic jet stream, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), sea-surface temperatures, tropical Pacific conditions, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the development of high-latitude blocking.
As we progress through October and November, attention will also increasingly turn towards the Arctic and the developing stratospheric polar vortex.
These signals will not only influence the remainder of autumn but could provide important clues about the transition into winter.
Autumn 2026 forecast updates
UKWF will keep this Autumn 2026 forecast regularly updated throughout the season.
Long-range forecasting is based on probabilities rather than certainty, and the expected pattern can change considerably as new data becomes available.
We will continue assessing whether the probability of wet, dry, windy, settled, warm or colder conditions is increasing or decreasing as autumn progresses.
Last updated: 7 September 2026
UKWF – monitoring the UK’s long-range weather patterns throughout Autumn 2026.