The weather is set to turn much warmer, humid and with an increased risk of torrential downpours and thunderstorms, especially towards the end of the working week. We see the greatest threat of thundery downpours across south-western parts of England/Channel Coasts on Wednesday evening and perhaps through the early hours of Thursday morning. Wet wet weather will then extend north across many western areas throughout Thursday. Many parts of England and Wales will see a very warm day on Wednesday. Wet weather in western areas on Thursday will keep the temperatures back a little, however, for many central, eastern and south-eastern areas we’ll see daily maximums on Thursday range from 22-26c with 27-30c possible in the south-east on Friday. However, …

The weather across the UK for the past several weeks has been incredibly dry and with no meaningful rain to come in the forecast next week and possibly beyond, we will hit drought levels with bans being imposed before summer officially starts. Is the stratosphere to blame? The question will be for many, why has this dry spell occurred? Well in this article I will try and answer that with in depth data and re-analysis. Cast your minds back to early March, where we had a big warming in stratosphere above the Polar region. This eventually caused a sudden stratospheric warming. What caused this warming event? Well after looking through various sets of data, the likely cause was the Madden-Julian …

There has been talk from the usual tabloids over the last few days about very warm weather and heatwave conditions on the way next week and extending into May. The models have been hinting at some warmer air moving out of the near continent and pushing into the United Kingdom, potentially bringing temperatures of 20-24c, some models are even showing 26c, at least into the southern half of the United Kingdom next week. Firstly, there are absolutely no certainties. Whilst most models are hinting at the possibility, they’re a bit up and down with the pattern and whether we get the warmest air into the United Kingdom and certainly whether or not it lasts. The attached chart from the ECM …

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We’ve had some rather fine weather across the United Kingdom this week with little in the way of rainfall thanks to high pressure being dominant. That will change during the next few days as we see low pressure moving out of the near continent and pushing into southern areas. The main risk of thunderstorms during the next 24-48 hours will be across parts of Southern England, Wales and South-West England, however, we may see some thundery downpours developing across the Midlands and more central areas through the early hours of Saturday morning, moving into parts of Wales, with the risk continuing throughout Saturday and Sunday. The storms, particularly during the heavier ones, will bring frequent lightning and localised flash flooding. …

Wet weather slowly moves up from the near continent (France) through the day and into this evening. During the early hours of tomorrow morning we’ll see some rather extensive & heavier rainfall developing across much of the south, south-west and then extending into Wales. We will also see the risk of some lively thunderstorms developing in places! As I’ve been highlighting in the Pro Facebook group over the last week, we do have a convective risk overnight and through the early hours of tomorrow morning. The models are hinting at some torrential downpours developing across parts of south-east England, southern England and central southern parts of England during the early hours of tomorrow morning. There is the potential for some …

We’ve certainly seen a wet start to Spring with low pressure mostly dominating our weather. No surprise that the remainder of this week and more especially into the weekend period brings yet more rain! Today sees showers and longer spells of rain affecting northeastern and eastern parts of the country with wet weather also developing later in the day across southern and south-eastern areas. As we head into tomorrow we’ll see yet further wet weather across parts of the south-west and south! The wet weather tomorrow, initially affecting southern and southwestern parts of England, will eventually move into south-east England and continue to push north into more central parts of England through the day. The frontal system will be slow …

The weather certainly has been unsettled this week and we’ll see further rainfall, some heavy and even wintry during the next 24-36 hours and some rather strong winds across the south and southwest tomorrow, however, conditions will become slacker and generally better as we head into the weekend, though with low pressure still in charge, expect further showers! Good Friday A day of sunshine and showers across the United Kingdom. Some of these will be on the heavy side with the odd rumble or two of thunder. You may find that southern and south-eastern areas start the day on a rather wet note, with showers merging to bring longer spells of rain at first, before conditions gradually improve through the …

We are almost at April and so far the start of Spring has been rather unsettled indeed! Plenty of rain has brought flooding issues in places and heavily saturated ground, it really isn’t the best start, not just in general but especially for those in the agricultural sector! At the moment we are stuck in a rut synoptically and by now you are probably wondering if and when the weather will improve. I’m afraid there are no signals pointing at drier, settled and generally milder weather at the moment. The reason for this is due to the strength and positioning of the jetstream. You can see the jet stream on the image below, dated for tomorrow (Friday 22nd March) positioned …