High pressure will be the dominating feature this week leading to more in the way of dry, settled and fine weather. We do have the small matter of some rain across Northern Ireland, Scotland, Northern parts of England and Western areas Tuesday into Wednesday as we see a weakening frontal system plague these areas. There will also be cooler air moving into the northern half of the United Kingdom albeit temporarily.   The good news is high pressure will quickly reassert its self with long spells of sunshine, plenty of blue sky and warmer temperatures Thursday onwards and more so during the weekend period.   We may just see highs reach the low twenties widely this weekend. The charts below …

An area of low pressure will develop and move up from the south later on Sunday bringing with it some very heavy rainfall for at least a 24 hour period!   At the moment areas at greatest risk of disruption are southeastern parts of England (Essex, London & the Home Counties, Sussex and Kent) and also parts of East Anglia.   Many areas will widely see rainfall totals in excess of 30mm with perhaps 60mm+ locally, which is of course a flooding concern.   As colder air is drawn in on the northern flank of the system we see a risk of rain turning to sleet and snow across the South Downs for example and potentially even to lower levels …

There have been many reports from the media suggesting a heatwave is on the way during April, some media sources have even said temperatures may reach the low to mid twenties. Is a heatwave on the way? Let’s take a look at what the weather models are showing.   This week sees low pressure in charge and whilst at times there will be some milder temperatures, especially across the southern half of the United Kingdom, many northern areas will continue to see cooler conditions with the risk of further wintry showers and snowfall across the higher ground in the north of England and Scottish hills/mountains.  The GFS chart below shows upper 850hpa air temperature and sea level pressure. The greens, blues and …

The latest model outputs continue to show much colder air being sourced all the way from Siberia moving into the United Kingdom this weekend. Initially the weather models had the colder air in the form of an easterly affecting the United Kingdom this Sunday into Monday of next week. The models have now brought the said event forward with the very cold air now expected to hit the United Kingdom this Saturday! Below is a chart from our GFS weather model.   Whilst there still remains some uncertainty with regards to how potent the easterly blast will be and how much snow will fall, what I can tell you is that based on the latest model output snow will be in the …

You may or may not have seen the reports in the media suggesting another beast from the east moving in to affect the United Kingdom this coming weekend. Whilst the weather models are hinting at the possibility there is still a little uncertainty with regards to the track and depth of the colder air being sourced all the way from Siberia.   What the weather models are suggesting is a large area of high pressure to develop over Scandinavia and with the Atlantic expected to quieten down and become blocked, the area of high pressure over Scandinavia may then open the gates to much colder air flooding in from Siberia, coming across the North Sea and impacting the United Kingdom. …

The sudden stratospheric warming event is about to deliver the UK’s coldest spell of weather this winter!   Later this week we see the winds switch to an easterly direction and whilst the coldest of air is yet to come, even by Friday and Saturday we’ll already start to see the changes occur across eastern areas as day time and overnight temperatures start to drop.   As we head into Sunday we start to see a snow shower risk across eastern coastal counties of England and Scotland with perhaps some more organised precipitation (sleet/snow) across E Scotland.   Monday is when the coldest air is expected to start digging in with very cold air being sourced all the way from …

Please note: Some of the following information is very over-simplified. The result is that the information, whilst accurate, does not account for all variables involved in forecasting the likely state of the Stratosphere, but it should make it a little easier to understand overall. The buzz word in recent years in the ‘industry’ surrounding winter forecasts has been stratosphere, and more prominently Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW for short).   What is this phenomenon and how does it affect the UK in winter? Well, as ever, there is a little bit of explaining to do, but stick with me!   So, as anybody who studied GCSE Geography will most likely know, the prevailing wind direction in the UK through the year generally, …