It is that time of the year when everyone is asking the question. What will the UK Winter of 2022-2023 bring?

At the moment the signals are pointing towards a La Niña based Autumn and winter. A La Niña Autumn and Winter would lead to an unsettled and cooler Autumn with areas of low pressure moving in off the Atlantic to affect the United Kingdom.

The winter period, or at least the start of winter 2022-2023 would more than likely bring much colder weather compared to El Niño years. Whilst winters generally get off to a colder start during a La Niña year, we would then normally go on to see a milder second half of winter or a mixed (seasonal reversal) which can be seen on the below graphics from the Metoffice.

It is also worth mentioning that La Niña has less of an impact this side of the pond, more especially across Northern Europe so whilst the seasonal tendencies are possible, there are no guarantees of any type of specific or extreme patterns across the United Kingdom. Though it is worth mentioning that the winter of 2010 in which many parts of the United Kingdom experienced disruptive snowfall and record breaking low temperatures was during a La Niña event.

At this range, based on current seasonal signals, I would expect a cold start to UK winter 2022 and a very unsettled Autumn 2022. The La Niña event should be in full swing by October. For now, enjoy any warm or high pressure dominated weather. Our full Autumn and UK winter 2022-2023 forecast will be published on this page at the end of September.

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