Storm Babet moves north across the United Kingdom throughout today and will bring some wet weather across much of England and Wales.

Storm Babet moving in from the south this afternoon – UKV Model

Strong winds will also affect southern, southeastern and eastern parts of England this evening and tonight. Gusts in excess of 50mph can be expected for a time. Gusty winds will continue along North Sea coasts as we head in to Thursday and Friday.

Storm Babet – UKV Model – Wind gusts

Further north across Scotland and the far north-east of England, we’ll see the strongest winds here with gale or severe gale force affecting coastal areas in particular, with gusts in excess of 65mph at times.

Storm Babet – UKV Model – Wind gusts
Storm Babet – UKV Model – Wind gusts

The main emphasis will be on heavy rainfall across northeastern parts of England and eastern parts of Scotland. What is worrying to see, is that current model outputs suggest 200-250mm of rainfall in the worst affected parts of Scotland between Thursday and Saturday! Flooding certainly will occur with these very high totals. The Metoffice have issued Amber and Red warnings as a result.

Storm Babet – Total rainfall expected by Saturday afternoon in mm

Storm Babet – Yellow, Amber and Red warnings issued for Scotland.

On Thursday afternoon we see the risk of some rather heavy downpours developing across parts of England and Wales, especially in the Midlands/Central and southeastern parts of England. Looking at the energy profile of the Atmosphere we could see some rather lively ones develop locally.

UKV Model – Precipitation rate & Sea level pressure
UKV Model – Most unstable CAPE (energy)

We will also see further wet weather across eastern, southeastern and northeastern parts of the country during the weekend period, whilst Scotland continues to see a deluge. Some models suggest another low pressure system moving in from the south-east on Friday with it slowly edging north through the weekend period.

Another low moving in from the south-east on Friday – UKV Model

So certainly a very interesting week of weather developing with strong winds, very large rainfall totals in places and thundery showers. Please find the expected total precipitation (rainfall) values for the UK, from now until Sunday midday.

ICON Model – Total rainfall