The countdown is on to the big day and each day we’ll give an update on the chances of a white Christmas and a rough idea of what weather to expect for the big day. You will find the updates below.   Update #3 – 11th December   Well well well.. The models are actually showing something much colder for the big day. Whilst I would take it with a pinch of salt at the moment, perhaps a small pinch for the time being, the ensembles from the models are showing colder scenarios for the big day, nothing set in stone yet but I’m sure you’ll enjoy the ups and downs of these daily updates.   The latest chart from …

A deep area of low pressure will move in from the west on Sunday and into Monday bringing very strong winds across parts of Ireland, Wales, Irish sea coasts in general and southwestern parts of England. The strong winds will initially affect parts of Northern Ireland and Ireland before transferring into Wales, Northwestern parts of England and the southwest of England. Gusts inland across northwestern parts of England, Wales, W Midlands and SW England will range from 50-55mph widely, perhaps exceeding 60mph for a time. Across Irish sea coasts and exposed locations gusts in excess of 70mph are to be expected.   Whilst there will be a wave of strong winds across these areas later today the main wave of strong …

For the last 10 days or so we’ve been mentioning the risk of much colder weather developing around the 10th of December. The models have been toying with the idea, with some of the output showing very cold and snowy weather, yet other model outputs have showed milder Atlantic driven weather. The chopping and changing between the models have sent forecasters on a wild goose chase it would seem, however we’re now starting to see better agreement and support from various models which point towards some colder weather developing. Now we’re not talking about massive amounts of snow and bitterly cold temperatures at this range, at the moment we’re more than likely to see much colder weather developing with a …

It is that time of the year again, woohoo (sorry I do love winter) where winter is nearly open us, OK yes there is the small matter of Autumn to get out of the way first but…. one thing I do want to say before we go into more detail is that I do expect a colder than average winter and I also expect more snow events compared to previous winters.   I do however have to disagree with some of the headlines doing the rounds on Facebook at the moment, headlines such as ‘Coldest winter in 30 years’ and ‘The beast from the east is coming back’.   My techniques at reading long range data and climatological data have proved pretty …

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms affecting parts of Wales, central England, northern and northwestern parts of England, Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and Scotland late tonight and into the early hours of Wednesday morning.   Whilst other areas (highlighted on the below map) are at risk of seeing some locally heavy thunderstorms the main emphasis is central and northern areas (marked in orange on the map).   Areas of thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of Wales and the W Midlands tonight and these will then track northeastwards late tonight and into the early hours of Wednesday morning. They’re expected to intensify as they track northeastwards.   Frequent lightning, hail, gusty winds and heavy downpours are to be expected. The …

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It is that time again, everyone is asking what this summer will bring. Us British are obsessed with the weather and most, not all, like to see a warm and settled summer. What does this summer have in store? Below I have my annual predictions, last years forecast couldn’t have gone any better, although I feel this years is a lot trickier looking at the signals.   My long range forecasts summarise each month by looking at temperature, pressure and precipitation anomalies, you’ll find for each month expected precipitation and temperature, for example above average, average or below average. Above average in temperature signals warmer and at times hot weather and the same applies for precipitation. Above average precipitation means it …

It has been very miserable of late with low pressure in charge. The good news is that next week the weather starts to settle down and temperatures will start to rise. Nothing significant in terms of high temperatures are expected at the moment but a warm up is on the cards.   Whilst many areas see temperatures respond next week it is the most unlikely areas that will see the highest temperatures next week! Take a look at the maximum video animation below which covers maximum temperatures for the next 10 days. You can find the time at the top right of the video.       Lewis

  Low pressure is expected to dominate our weather next week as the Jetstream fires up, again! We’ll see spells of wet and at times windy weather across much of the United Kingdom throughout next week.   There is perhaps a glimmer of hope that as we head towards next weekend things may just settle down with a ridge of high pressure trying to develop from the south bringing slightly warmer conditions, however it is only a glimmer at the moment. Please find a video animation of sea level pressure and precipitation (rainfall) for next week using our high resolution model data further down this post.   I’m trying very hard to bring a full service back to the general …